Stocks, oil, and bonds - investing
A barrel of oil bounced to over $60 Thu, which triggered a steep sell-off in the stock marketplace Thu and Fri, while oil pulled-back to about $59 a barrel, and blocked at $59. 84 a barrel Fri.
There are many reasons why oil prices are high, as well as a "price premium" for potentially depressing geopolitical events, the start of the cyclone period Jun 1st (which may concern refineries in the Gulf), the 4th of July celebration (which is the start of the summer forceful season), and end-of-the accommodate display dressing (which may keep oil prices and oil stocks high). However, the most influencial dynamic is stronger than predictable large-scale cost-effective growth. Both U. S. economic and financial policies linger stimulative, and the comprehensive budget continues to enlarge at above trend growth. Moreover, economic markets have not slowed the international cost-cutting because of denial "Wealth Effects. "
The price of oil has a weaker affect on U. S. producers, as the U. S. cheap has develop into lighter (for example, the foodstuffs Microsoft produces weigh little). Nonetheless, high oil prices will have some depressing achieve on earnings, acutely producers of heavy crop (e. g. in China, which is heartbreaking from the Agricultural Revolution into the Engineering Revolution, while the U. S. is heartrending from the In a row Revolution into the Biotech Revolution). Also, U. S. productivity advance is slowing, which is destructive for earnings. On the drinking side, a senior oil price is a tax, as regulars alternate other foodstuffs for advanced priced oil products. So, call or prices for other goods fall. Consequently, a advanced oil price will slow crop augmentation and lower existing principles moderately than cause inflation.
The four charts below are same dot daily charts of SPX (S&P 500), OEX (S&P 100), OIH (oil stocks index), and TLT (long bond ETF). SPX (the main 500 stocks) has outperformed OEX (the biggest 100 stocks) for numerous years. Currently, OEX is comparatively undervalued compared to SPX. The four charts show the broad stock promote (i. e. SPX and OEX) OIH, and TLT commonly rallied as one recently. However, they may move in assorted instructions over the next few weeks.
The first chart shows SPX fell to the congestion area (circle), which is a major short-term assistance area. Also, SPX 1,192 has been a major (support and resistance) level, for quite a few months, though SPX congested at 1,191 1/2. The Price-by-Volume bar (on left side of chart) shows extra aid at 1,180 to 1,190. Both the 50 day MA, now at 1,181 1/2 and the 200 day MA, at this time at 1,174, are rising. Major resistance is in the low 1,200s (psychological resistance at 1,200, 10 and 20 day MAs, and top of congestion area). SPX has formed a bearish head & shoulders arrangement so far this year. There are open gaps at 1,174, 1,143, and 1,138, which may close this summer. End-of-the cut up dialogue box dressing by Thu, new cut up on Fri, and the 4th of Jul feast Mon may be buoyant for the stock promote next week.
The be with chart shows OEX fell below major assist levels over the two day sell-off, i. e. below the 10 20 50 and 200 day MAs, below the congestion area (circle), and below the Price-by-Volume bar in the mid 560s. Next major assist is in the low 550s, which is the central point of a before congestion area. Major resistance is at 564 to 567 (where there are quite a few resistance points). Over the past five years, the OEX to SPX ratio fell from 57% to 47%, after rising from 46% to 57% over the prior five years. Moreover, OEX underperformed SPX over the past two months. So, OEX is fairly undervalued compared to SPX.
The third chart shows OIH rallied from just over $84 to over $105 a share, while oil rallied from $47 to $60 a barrel. If oil is in a $50 to $60 range, then OIH may join and fall to the mid-$90s a share. The fourth chart reflects lessening long bond yields in recent times (since TLT and long bond yields move in contradictory dirctions). Also, the destruction of the yield curve freshly is predicting slower efficient growth. International cost-effective advance is liable to slow over the next year or two, since the large-scale budget cannot avow above trend growth. Consequently, both the stock advertise and oil prices be supposed to fall (i. e. SPX OEX and OIH). However, slower disinflationary cyst or slower inflationary development (i. e. stagflation) will agree on TLT.
Economic gossip next week are: Mon: None, Tue: Consumer Confidence, Wed: Final GDP and GDP Chain Price Deflator, Thu: Delicate Income, Delicate Spending, Unemployment Claims, Chicago PMI, and the FOMC announcement, Fri: Construction Spending, ISM Index, Auto Sales, and Michigan Consumer Sentiment. There are notable income intelligence only on Wed: ORCL RIMM GIS COMS MON TONS.
There may be first-rate decision trading opportunities next week. If the price of oil pulls-back, OIH may fall, while SPX and OEX may bounce (although, longer-term SPX OEX and OIH may fall). TLT may fall after the FOMC message Thu, since it may avow its balanced stance on development and inflation. Perhaps, OIH will trade connecting 100 1/2 and 104 1/2, while OEX trades in the high 550s to high 560s. TLT may pullback one or two points, and major aid is at 93 1/2. A heavy producer e. g. X (U. S. Steel), which is beaten down, may rise on a pullback in oil prices. SPX puts may be a buy at 1,200. The Dow Industrials fell from over 10,600 to below 10,300 Thu and Fri (The Dow bounced sharply off 10,000 two months ago). So, DIA calls may be a buy. There also may be an first-rate occasion to make gains on earnings, e. g. GIS calls.
See http://www. peaktrader. com Forum Index Bazaar Overview division for charts.
Arthur Albert Eckart is the come to nothing and owner of PeakTrader. Arthur has worked for advertisement banks, e. g. Wells Fargo, Banc One, and First Buying Technologies, at some stage in the 1980s and 1990s. He has also worked for Janus Funds from 1999-00. Arthur Eckart has a BA & MA in Economics from the Academy of Colorado. He has worked on options collection optimization since 1998.
Mr Eckart has urban a all-inclusive trading line of attack using economics, assortment optimization, and industrial chemical analysis to augment benefit and curtail risk at the same time. This attitude has resulted in admirable proceeds with low risk over the past three years.
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